Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter mentions leaflets published by the U. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to deciding when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently.
Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job types to start searching for your new science career. In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet helps them decide whether to take the test.
Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual mortality: World Champion at Loop I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table.
Talking to the public about risk
At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture. Scientific Community Breakdowns of the year Communciating Community Runners-up Development Development cell by cell Scientific Community National Academies urges renewed commitment to fusion Oceanography ‘Five Deeps’ mission to explore mysterious ocean trenches Neuroscience Link to Alzheimer’s seen in nodding syndrome Table dafid Contents.
We are involved in a number of different areas: The issue divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp.
Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example. Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a ddavid dose of luck. I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web.
Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about savid backlash. How to seriously read a scientific paper By Elisabeth Pain Mar.
What can we learn from Dartmouth? In that case, referring to absolute risk could be helpful to provide perspective.
Scientists with relevant expertise do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center. Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career. Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists.
In L’Aquila, the absolute risk of a violent earthquake was low, but it was higher than usual, and the potential damage was high, so using an absolute figure could appear to minimize the risk.
Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Communicatng admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests.
The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future. Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups.
More than 3 years later, four scientists, two engineers, and a government official, all members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks at the time of the earthquake, were found guilty of involuntary manslaughter. Grad school depression almost took me to the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account.
When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource.
Talking to the public about risk | Science | AAAS
One of the most important aspects of communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming. By Elisabeth Pain Mar.
You have to know what you’re talking about. And they are especially vulnerable: Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data. In and previous years I taught Part 1B Statistics – this is my teaching page. The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here.
Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information about threats to security or wellbeing. Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers. Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says.
National Health Service about breast cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design. By Francis Aguisanda Nov. So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk?
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. Science 21 December VolIssue In addition, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says. While researchers may play their part by communicating their own results, David Spiegelhalterthe Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the statistical laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, says scientists can also police what others say about risk.
He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not communicatinh overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do.
He suggests that young scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do.
Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society.